Weekly Market Outlook: Jobs, Rate Decisions and a Test of Market Confidence

The US economy entered the final stretch of October with stronger reported growth, but inflation stayed elevated and technology shares ended the month under pressure. This week shifts attention from last week's central-bank statements to new evidence about hiring, business activity and the next decisions in Australia and the UK. For currencies, gold and equity indices, the important question is whether resilient activity can coexist with restrictive interest rates.

Key Takeaways

• US growth strengthened: third-quarter real GDP rose at a 3.4% annualised rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. September core PCE inflation was 3.1% year on year.
• Policy remains cautious: the Fed and ECB held rates last week. The RBA decides on Tuesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.
• Friday's US jobs report is the key data test: September payroll growth was just 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. October figures may alter how investors interpret the Fed's decision.

Last Week in Markets

US growth accelerated, but inflation remained above target

On Thursday, 29 October, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the second. Investment and consumer spending contributed to growth, while a decline in exports partly offset the increase. This is an advance estimate and remains subject to revision. BEA GDP release.

The same day's September personal income and outlays release showed headline PCE inflation at 3.6% year on year and the index excluding food and energy at 3.1%. Headline prices rose 0.5% month on month, while the core measure rose 0.3%. Nominal consumer spending increased 0.5% over the month, but real spending was little changed. That distinction matters: spending more money does not necessarily mean buying much more after adjusting for prices. BEA PCE release.

The Fed and ECB held rates, highlighting the inflation challenge

On 28 October, the Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The decision passed 10-2, with two members preferring a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong but inflation as elevated. It was a hold, not a rate increase. Federal Reserve statement.

The European Central Bank also kept its three key policy rates unchanged on 29 October. Its statement warned that higher energy prices could lift inflation and weigh on growth, while tighter financing conditions could further restrain activity. Separately, Eurostat's preliminary estimate showed euro-area GDP rising 0.4% quarter on quarter in Q3, compared with 0.6% in Q2. ECB decision | Eurostat GDP estimate.

Technology shares fell sharply as investors questioned AI spending

Friday brought a pronounced equity selloff. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.86% on 30 October, while the S&P 500 fell 1.82%. Reuters linked the decline to investor concerns about the cash demands and returns from large AI investments after disappointing corporate results. Intel shares fell 28.6% that day. These are Friday session moves, not weekly percentage changes. Reuters market report.

Oil strengthened while gold weakened

Brent crude settled Friday at $117.63 per barrel, up 2.4% on the day, as geopolitical supply concerns persisted. Spot gold, meanwhile, fell to about $3,874.58 per ounce in Reuters' Friday market report. The contrast is a reminder that gold does not always rise when equities fall: inflation expectations, the dollar and interest-rate expectations can matter at the same time. Reuters cross-asset report.

What Changed and Why It Matters Now

Last week's releases did not tell a simple story of either strength or weakness. Output growth improved, yet inflation remained elevated; central banks held rates, yet investors became less comfortable with the cost of major technology investments. The question now is how long policy can stay restrictive if hiring slows, and how markets would respond if wages or business prices remain firm.

That is why this week's data carry weight. September US payrolls increased by only 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. Friday's October report will show whether hiring remained subdued, while the ISM surveys will add a view of business activity and prices. The outcome could change expectations for the next Fed meeting without mechanically determining any currency or asset-price direction. BLS September employment report.

Digital Assets & Regulation: Thailand's Bitcoin Ruling

Bitcoin can count as property in a robbery case

A Thai Supreme Court ruling reported on 28 October 2026 offers an important distinction for digital-asset holders. In case 4929/2569, the court held that Bitcoin transferred under coercion had economic value and could qualify as property for the purposes of a robbery offence. The case involved a victim on Koh Samui who was forced to convert approximately US$50,000 into 2.480801 BTC and transfer it to the perpetrators in September 2022. Local reporting says the Supreme Court upheld a 10-year sentence. The ruling was publicised on 28 October; the precise date the judgment was delivered has not been independently established. Bitcoin Addict's account of the court summary | Thaiger's Thai-language report.

Why it matters: The reported reasoning treats an electronically held asset's market value and transferability as relevant to criminal-law protection. This does not make Bitcoin legal tender in Thailand, nor does it establish a new rule for every cryptocurrency or imply any specific change in BTC prices. Thailand's central bank has separately stated that digital assets are not legal tender. For market readers, the development is a legal and regulatory story to monitor, not a standalone trading signal. Bank of Thailand's official position | CoinDesk coverage.

This Week to Watch

1. Tuesday, 3 November: Reserve Bank of Australia decision

The RBA will publish its policy decision and Statement on Monetary Policy at 03:30 UTC. Its cash-rate target currently stands at 4.60%, following a 25-basis-point increase in September. The new decision, inflation forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock's comments will help investors assess whether further tightening is being considered. A rate move alone may not tell the whole story: guidance relative to expectations is often decisive for AUD/USD. RBA schedule | Current cash rate.

2. Tuesday and Thursday: US midterms and the Bank of England

US congressional elections take place on Tuesday, 3 November. Investors will watch the resulting balance of power for possible implications for fiscal negotiations, borrowing and regulation. Election outcomes and their market impact are uncertain; this outlook does not assume a particular result.

On Thursday, 5 November at 12:00 UTC, the Bank of England publishes its rate decision, minutes and Monetary Policy Report. Bank Rate is currently 3.75%. At September's meeting, six members voted to hold and three preferred an increase. UK CPI inflation subsequently reached 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August. The new vote split, inflation projections and growth outlook may be as important as the headline rate for sterling and gilts. BoE schedule | September vote | ONS CPI data.

3. Friday, 6 November: US employment report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish October nonfarm payrolls at 13:30 UTC. The prior report showed September payroll growth of 29,000, a 4.2% unemployment rate and average hourly earnings up 0.1% month on month. Watch the combination of hiring, unemployment, wages and revisions, not just one headline. Stronger hiring alongside firm wages could sustain inflation concerns; weaker hiring could raise growth questions. The actual market response will depend on expectations and positioning. BLS schedule | Previous report.

Canada's October Labour Force Survey is also scheduled for Friday, at 13:30 UTC, the same time as the US report. The combined North American data could make USD/CAD particularly sensitive to relative employment surprises. Statistics Canada release note.

Other scheduled signals

US ISM manufacturing is due Monday, 2 November, and ISM services on Wednesday, 4 November, both at 15:00 UTC. The September readings were 54.5 and 54.9 respectively, above the 50 threshold normally associated with expansion. The details on orders, employment and prices will help show whether demand and cost pressure are moving together. Eurostat's flash estimate of euro-area October inflation is listed for Tuesday, 3 November in its live release calendar, a day earlier than the 4 November date given in its September releases. Eurostat's euro indicators are normally published at 10:00 UTC. ISM schedule | Manufacturing previous | Services previous | Eurostat current calendar.

Markets to Watch

These are markets with identifiable news drivers, not trade recommendations or directional forecasts.

• AUD/USD: Tuesday's RBA decision and its updated inflation forecasts, particularly any change in the bank's assessment of further tightening.
• GBP/USD: Thursday's BoE vote split and projections, followed by Friday's US labour-market data.
• EUR/USD: the euro-area inflation update and how European price pressure compares with US employment and interest-rate expectations.
• US equity indices: whether the technology-led selloff broadens or stabilises as earnings concerns meet fresh activity and employment data.
• Gold and Brent crude: the interaction of oil-supply risk, inflation expectations and bond yields. Gold may react differently from oil even during the same geopolitical event.

Week at a Glance

All times are in UTC. US Eastern is UTC-5 after the 1 November clock change. Scheduled release times may change.

Date	Event	UTC	Markets in focus
Mon 2 Nov	US ISM manufacturing PMI	15:00	USD, US indices
Tue 3 Nov	RBA monetary policy decision	03:30	AUD/USD
Tue 3 Nov	US congressional elections	All day	USD, Treasuries, indices
Tue 3 Nov	US JOLTS job openings	15:00	USD, yields
Tue 3 Nov	Euro-area October inflation flash	10:00	EUR/USD, European assets
Wed 4 Nov	US ISM services PMI	15:00	USD, US indices
Thu 5 Nov	Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report	12:00	GBP/USD, gilts
Fri 6 Nov	US October employment report	13:30	USD, gold, indices
Fri 6 Nov	Canada October employment report	13:30	USD/CAD

Sources: New York Fed, RBA, BoE, BLS, Eurostat.

What Could Change the Story?

The largest unscheduled risk remains geopolitical news affecting energy supply and shipping. A new disruption could change oil prices and inflation expectations quickly, while easing tensions could have the opposite effect. Corporate earnings surprises could also alter investors' assessment of the returns on AI investment.

Political developments after the US elections may shift expectations about spending, taxes or regulation, but those implications will depend on the actual result and subsequent policy proposals. Equally, a payroll surprise is not a complete economic verdict: revisions, wages and labour-force participation can change the interpretation of the headline number.

The Week in Brief

1. Strong Q3 US GDP growth and elevated PCE inflation make the labour-market outlook more important for policy expectations.
2. The RBA and BoE decisions are about guidance and the outlook as much as the headline rate.
3. US payrolls on Friday, oil headlines and the aftermath of the US elections could all change the market narrative.

Sources and Methodology

This article was prepared on 2 November 2026 using official statistical and central-bank releases for factual data and schedules, Reuters for reported market moves, and cited Thai-language reporting and financial press coverage for the Bitcoin court case. The Thai judgment itself was not accessed directly; its reported content is described with attribution. Market implications are scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. Release dates and times were checked against primary calendars on 2 November; schedules can change.

• Bitcoin Addict, 28 October report based on court summary; Thaiger, Thai-language coverage; Bank of Thailand on legal-tender status; CoinDesk, 29 October report
• US BEA, Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE
• Federal Reserve, 28 October statement and ECB, 29 October decision
• Reuters, 30 October US stocks and Reuters, 30 October cross-asset markets
• RBA policy calendar, BoE meeting calendar, BLS release schedule
• ISM report calendar, Eurostat release calendar and Statistics Canada LFS release note

Risk warning: Trading leveraged forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for general information, not personalised investment advice. Market reactions can be unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results.